The 2024 signal, the 2025 confirmation, 793 laps led since 2021, and the new Chevrolet factor — the full data case for why the garage is watching the No. 5 car.
The 2024 signal, the 2025 confirmation, 793 laps led since 2021, and the new Chevrolet factor — the full data case for why the garage is watching the No. 5 car. Sportsbooks say Kyle Larson is the favorite at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Inside the NASCAR garage, that isn't much of a debate. Larson opened the week near the top of the odds board, and competitors seem to expect the same thing. As Denny Hamlin said on this week's episode of Actions Detrimental while previewing the race: "You've got to think the Hendrick cars are going to be really fast at Vegas — that's a place Larson is usually really good." — Denny Hamlin When competitors start pointing at the same car before the weekend even begins, it usually means the garage has already noticed something.
The performance data from recent Las Vegas races explains why. The 2024 Signal The first clear signal came in the 2024 Pennzoil 400. Larson didn't just win the race.
He controlled it. Laps led: 181 Stage wins: Stage 1 & Stage 2 Fastest laps: 90+ Driver rating: 148.1 The real indicator wasn't just the lap lead. It was the long-run speed advantage.
During the dominant middle portion of the race, Larson was averaging roughly 0.18 seconds per lap faster than the next fastest car. Larson avg lap: ≈ 30.15 Next fastest car: ≈ 30.33 Gap: ≈ 0.18 seconds per lap Over a 20-lap green-flag run that 0.18s/lap gap becomes ~3.5 seconds — roughly 25 car lengths. At 40 laps, it doubles to ~7 seconds.
At that point the race effectively becomes a math problem the field can't solve. The Setup Adjustment That Created It That performance didn't happen by accident. After a previous Las Vegas race, crew chief Cliff Daniels said the No.
5 team felt their car didn't have enough long-run pace compared to the competition. "We felt like we didn't quite have the long-run pace we needed here last time." — Cliff Daniels The Hendrick Motorsports group returned to Vegas with a different focus. Instead of chasing short-run speed, the team prioritized balance deeper into runs, where tire falloff usually decides the race.
Larson's feedback played a major role in that process. "Kyle's feedback helps us understand exactly where the balance needs to be over a long run." — Cliff Daniels Once that balance problem was solved, the speed advantage became obvious. The 2025 Confirmation The signal appeared again the next time the series returned to Las Vegas.
In the Fall 2025 race, Larson once again controlled large portions of the event. Laps led: 129 Driver rating: 138.4 Average running position: Top 3 Larson ultimately finished second to Denny Hamlin, but the race statistics told a different story. Even in defeat, Larson's performance metrics ranked among the strongest in the field.
A 138+ driver rating typically corresponds to race-winning pace. At Las Vegas, clean air is worth roughly 0.10–0.15 seconds per lap. Once Hamlin gained the lead late in the race, Larson was forced to chase from behind — a difficult task even for the fastest car.
Inside the garage, that race reinforced something teams had already noticed. The No. 5 car continued to show elite long-run speed at Las Vegas even when track position cost it the win.
The New Chevrolet Factor The 2026 season introduced a variable that could reinforce Larson's advantage. Chevrolet teams debuted an updated Camaro body design aimed specifically at improving aerodynamic stability on intermediate tracks like Las Vegas — the type of track where body updates matter most. Short tracks minimize aerodynamic effects.
Superspeedways rely heavily on drafting. But 1.5-mile intermediate tracks expose everything: corner entry stability, sideforce, and how the car behaves as tires wear all become magnified over long green-flag runs. Inside the NASCAR garage, intermediate tracks are often called the "aero test tracks" for new body packages.
History shows that new body designs often take time to fully optimize on these tracks. When Ford debuted the Mustang body in 2019, teams initially struggled on intermediates before unlocking its aerodynamic advantages later in the season. The revised front fascia and airflow characteristics of the updated Chevrolet are intended to provide more consistent balance deeper into a run as tire wear increases.
That type of stability plays directly into Larson's biggest strength. Drivers who excel at managing long runs often benefit most when a car remains predictable late in a fuel cycle. If the updated Chevrolet platform performs the way teams believe it will, the No.
5 car could once again be one of the strongest long-run entries in the field. Why Vegas Fits Larson Las Vegas tends to reward drivers who can maintain corner speed while protecting the right-rear tire over long runs. That driving style fits Larson particularly well.
He has historically been one of the strongest drivers on 1.5-mile intermediate tracks, where maintaining momentum through the corner becomes critical. When the race turns into a long-run balance test, that advantage becomes difficult to match. Which is why when the Cup Series returns to Las Vegas, the same car tends to come up in garage conversations.
The No. 5. The Bottom Line The signal at Las Vegas isn't qualifying speed.
It's long-run balance. Larson's team has already demonstrated they can solve that problem at this track. The race data shows it.
The lap totals confirm it. Competitors are acknowledging it. Most race previews focus on practice speeds or qualifying position.
Inside the garage, teams pay attention to signals — driver comments, practice behavior, long-run speed, radio chatter. When those signals start pointing in the same direction, it usually means something. This week at Las Vegas, many of those indicators are pointing toward the same car.
And if the long-run numbers hold again this weekend, the No. 5 may once again turn the race into a math problem the rest of the field can't solve. Pit By Numbers · Las Vegas Motor Speedway · March 13, 2026