Plus-money top-10 longshots for the San Diego street race, where the data says the books priced these drivers too low: Heim +330, Preece +500, Wallace +650, Nemechek +750, Hill +900.
Plus-money top-10 plays on a street course nobody’s raced. The longshots we’re considering up top; the case for each below. Coronado Street Course · Anduril 250 · June 2026 · By PitByNumbers Staff · 7 min read Get the full San Diego card before the green flag.
Why these five Here’s the only number that matters this week: nobody in the field has ever turned a lap here. A 3.4-mile Navy-base street course makes the 39 fastest drivers on earth rookies at the same time — and when everybody’s a rookie, the favorites stop being safe and the longshots stop being dead. That’s the thesis.
The five names up top all have a verified road-course finish the market priced to the floor. We forecast where the data says each one lands, then bet only where the odds sit well below it — on a street course, 12th and 10th are two corners and one caution apart. 1.
Corey Heim — Top 10 (+330) Start here, because this is the one the data screams about. Corey Heim is the most dominant road-course racer in the Truck Series right now — he’s won his last four Truck road-course starts (Mid-Ohio, COTA, Lime Rock, Watkins Glen), three of them from the pole. At Lime Rock he led 99 of 100 laps.
That’s not winning a race; that’s hosting one. So why +330 just to finish top 10? Because the books are pricing his Cup record — a dozen starts, all on ovals, all quiet. Here’s the part they’re glossing over: San Diego is the first time Heim has run a road course in a Cup car.
They’ve been judging him on the track type he’s worst at, on a weekend that’s all about the track type he’s best at. That’s the inefficiency. That’s the bet.
2. Ryan Preece — Top 10 (+500) We have a complicated history with Ryan Preece — this man has burned us on top-10 bets more times than we’d like to admit, and we keep walking back to the well. Here’s why: the numbers are nothing like his reputation.
Over his last seven road-course starts, Preece averages around 12th — not the 18th the +500 implies — and that stretch includes a 6th at the Charlotte Roval and a 7th at the Chicago Street Race. Two top-10s in the last year, in an RFK Ford, for a driver you can get at five-to-one. The reputation says fade him; the results say the price went too far the other way.
3. Bubba Wallace — Top 10 (+650) We’ll be straight, because the alternative is selling you a story the data won’t back. Wallace’s road results are inconsistent — he ran 29th at the Glen last month, and that’s real.
But the speed underneath is what the +650 ignores: he qualified 2nd at COTA in 2025 , finished 8th at Watkins Glen that summer, and charged from 24th to 11th at COTA this past March. That’s a fast car getting in its own way — beaten by execution, not pace — and a top-10 market underprices exactly that profile. At +650 you’re not betting he’s secretly elite.
You’re betting the speed finally outlasts the mistakes, and getting paid well to wait. 4. John Hunter Nemechek — Top 10 (+750) This is the ceiling play.
Nemechek’s overall road average is ugly — most of these haven’t gone well, and we won’t pretend otherwise. But fliers live on ceilings, and his is verified and recent: he finished 6th at Mexico City in 2025 — the most recent brand-new course NASCAR built, the exact scenario we’re staring at this week — and 10th at Watkins Glen this year. A top-6 on a new track and a top-10 at the Glen, both inside the last twelve months, for a driver priced at +750 like he’s never sniffed one.
5. Austin Hill — Top 10 (+900) The longest number on the card, and we’ll be honest about it. The correction up front: Hill has never won an Xfinity-level road course — it’s the only track type he hasn’t won on there.
But read the rest of the line: in 27 Xfinity-level road starts, 16 top-10s and 13 top-5s, best finish 2nd, including runner-up at COTA three different times. He’s the ultimate road-course bridesmaid — gets to the front, can’t land the final blow — and for a top-10 bet, “always near the front, never quite wins” is the perfect profile. In Cup he ran 9th at the Chicago Street Course in 2025.
He’s in RCR equipment on a survival track where patience and car preservation are the whole game. Size it small — it’s a 9-to-1 dart — but it’s a dart with sixteen road top-10s behind it. (For context, handled with respect: Hill is in the No.
33 filling RCR’s Cup seat following the death of Kyle Busch. That’s not a selling point. It’s just why he’s here.) Worth your time alongside this card: why the favorite is priced like nobody in NASCAR history in the most absurd line we’ve ever seen , and the full breakdown of the track in the one race with zero history .
None of these are locks, and we’d be lying if we dressed them up as such — that’s the whole point of a plus-money card. We don’t need all five. We need the prices to be wrong, and on a street course nobody’s driven, the books are guessing as much as anyone.
We just guess from the data, and the data keeps pointing at the same thing every time NASCAR builds a new street course: a driver coming from the back row to finish 2nd, the reigning champion finishing 36th, and a longshot in the top 10. Heim’s the play we’d size biggest; the rest are darts cut to their price. Hit one of the long ones and the card prints.