Penske led 263 of 301 laps at Loudon last year and the win board is priced shut. Five plus-money top 10 prices our loop data actually likes, receipts included.
THE READ Team Penske led 263 of 301 laps here last year and the win board never forgot it. The top 10 board left a side door open. We brought five keys.
By PitByNumbers Staff · Dollar Tree 301 · New Hampshire Motor Speedway · Sunday, August 23, 2026 · 3:00 PM ET · USA Network · 301 laps The Win Market Is Closed Last September at Loudon, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano led 263 of the 301 laps between them. Logano averaged the 2nd running position all afternoon and finished 4th. Blaney won.
The betting market watched the same race we did, and this week the win board prices that memory to death: every one of the top ten favorites is minus money just to finish top 10. There is no argument left to have at the front. The arguments, and the prices, live underneath, and Sunday runs on familiar rubber: Goodyear is bringing the same D-5262 left and D-5256 right combination Cup teams raced at Richmond six days ago, the third points race on this exact pairing since March.
Goodyear's Rick Heinrich said it plainly: "Despite being just over one-mile long, New Hampshire fits into the short track category, meaning the same Goodyear Racing Eagles used last weekend at Richmond are again the right choice this weekend." So the reads that mattered at Richmond carry, and the loop data tells us exactly what buys a top 10 at this track: run quality. Nine of the ten drivers who finished top 10 here last year spent at least 74 percent of their laps inside the top 15. Nobody stole one.
So this card is built on average running position and top-15 lap share, at this track and on this tire, and we will be honest about the cost of that: last week's version of this column went 1 for 5, and three of this week's five prices sit above the +250 line our own graded ledger says to avoid. Each of those three gets its exception argued out loud in its own section. If you take only the two compliant prices, we will not argue with you.
This is a card about a closed front door. Penske led 263 of 301 laps here last year, the win board prices the top ten favorites at minus money just to run top 10, and so the only market with real prices left is the one underneath, where run quality gets paid. Elliott and Chastain are the floor, the two prices our ledger signs off on, built on a top-seven tire rank and a four-for-five track file.
Van Gisbergen is the tire rank the market has not priced. Hocevar and McDowell are the same bet wearing different firesuits: cars whose average running position at this track embarrasses their recent finishes, bought at the discount the box scores created. Three of the five sit above our own +250 line, we said so in every section where it was true, and last week's 1 for 5 is the tax that rule exists to prevent.
This week the exceptions are narrower, the receipts are track-specific, and every claim on this page came out of the loop data, not a gut. Receipts, not vibes. Informational & entertainment only.
Not betting advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Odds as listed at time of writing and subject to move.