Five win plays and five top-5 plays for the NFPA 250 O'Reilly Auto Parts Series race at Martinsville. Built on three-year car track history, practice lap averages, and verified garage quotes.
By PitByNumbers Staff Five win plays. Five top-5 plays. Every number verified.
10 min read M artinsville does not reward guessing. It rewards homework. One groove, no hiding, nowhere to escape when the car is wrong — and nowhere for the market to hide when it has missed something.
This card was built on three layers: three years of car track history, practice lap averages at every distance from five laps to thirty, and direct quotes from drivers and crew chiefs pulled from practice audio and post-session interviews. Every pick earned its spot. Every number is verified.
Top Win Plays The number one car has struggled to convert at Martinsville in recent years — zero top-10s in five starts, with a pattern of starting well and fading late. That history is worth noting. But this specific practice session points up.
Kvapil ran forty-five straight laps and came out with precise, confident feedback: Notably, Rajah Caruth's spotter — watching the entire field from above the track — confirmed in real time that the number one car had the second-best long-run pace in the field: That is an independent peer evaluation of where Kvapil's car stood relative to every other car on the track. He won the late model race here in 2024. Finished fourth in his O'Reilly Series debut at this track.
Led forty laps in the fall 2025 race before getting spun. He starts fifth on the grid. At +750, the price compensates for the car history warning while the practice data and garage language both point the same direction.
+750. BetRivers. Kvapil to win.
Defending Martinsville winner. When Gray got to victory lane here last fall his first words were: First in the ten-lap average. Second at twenty laps.
Third at fifteen laps. The broadcasters ran an on-board camera with him specifically to demonstrate what smooth wheel input at this track looks like — and used his lap as the teaching example. JGR reported his balance was "pretty close" to where he needed it.
He starts thirteenth. At Martinsville that means Gray will need to be methodical and deliberate in the opening stage — picking his spots, protecting his equipment, and letting the race come to him before he starts hunting positions. A driver who tries to force it early at a one-groove half-mile usually pays for it late.
Gray has won here. He knows how this track works. The patience required to win from thirteenth at Martinsville is a skillset, not a problem.
The defending winner with the best ten-lap average on the board at +450 is a price the market has not thought all the way through. +450. BetRivers.
Gray to win. One win. Seven top-fives.
Nine top-10s in eleven career O'Reilly Series starts at Martinsville. His session was stronger long than short — the profile that fits this track. After qualifying was rained out he said: Clean air from the pole at Martinsville controls the race.
Allgaier knows how to use it. JRM has won four consecutive races. At +400 for the pole-sitting car with nine top-10s in eleven tries at this track, the number is straightforward.
+400. DraftKings. Allgaier to win.
Seven career O'Reilly Series starts at Martinsville. Average finish of 6.3. Four top-fives.
Six top-10s. Three runner-up finishes. 202 laps led — more at this track than any other venue in his career.
Zero wins. Third in the thirty-lap average. Fourth at twenty-five laps.
The long-run data is elite. His post-session language was measured and direct: On why Martinsville fits: The market is pricing him at +1000 because his early practice numbers looked ordinary. The twenty-five and thirty-lap averages tell a different story.
JRM equipment. A driver who has been in position to win here three times. At four-figure odds on the long-run leader, this is the value shot on the win card.
+1000. BetRivers. Smith to win.
The number twenty car has produced two wins in the last five Martinsville starts — the strongest car track history at this venue on this entry list. Average running position of 4.79 over that span means this car has consistently lived inside the top five throughout races here, not just at the finish line. First overall in the five-lap average.
His balance radio after the session: Crew chief Sam McAulay responded: "Sounds pretty good in there." McAulay came into this weekend having specifically studied Christopher Bell's Martinsville short-run data to address the one gap in the Jones package. Eleven career O'Reilly Series starts at this track. One win.
Four top-fives. Six top-10s. 164 laps led.
Starts third on the grid. +750. DraftKings.
Jones to win. The Top-5 Plays Eighth in the thirty-lap average. His session was deliberately measured — he said so directly: Crew chief Seth Chavka led the number nineteen to three wins and the owners championship in 2025.
Turns eighteen years old this Monday — his first start at a half-mile under NASCAR eligibility rules. The car underneath him is JGR-built and capable regardless of his experience level. +115.
BetRivers. Crews top 5. Ran sixty laps continuously in practice — more than anyone in the field — and got faster as the run extended.
First at both twenty-five and thirty laps. Third at twenty. The broadcasters watching him said: That long-run trajectory is the signal.
Martinsville is a 250-lap race. The cars that keep turning after thirty laps of hard racing are the ones that are there at the end. Starts seventh on the grid.
JGR organization. +165 for the best sustained long-run trajectory on the practice sheet has not caught up to the data. +165.
DraftKings. Day top 5. First at fifteen laps.
First at twenty laps. Second at thirty laps. Consistent at every distance.
His spotter confirmed the picture in real time after the session — and the comparison he made tells you exactly where Caruth stood in the field: The number one car — Carson Kvapil — was the only car with better long-run pace than Caruth on Friday. That is a spotter watching every car on the track telling his driver he had the second-best long-run car in the field. Starts second on the grid.
JRM equipment. Hendrick Automotive Group backing. +165.
DraftKings. Caruth top 5. Second in the ten-lap average.
Sixth at five laps. Real short-run pop. This car has a 100% completion rate at Martinsville over three years of loop data — it always finishes.
His balance radio noted a snug feeling at the three-quarter mark — a fixable note, not a catastrophic one. This car historically benefits from attrition more than outright pace. It is always there when attrition happens.
Starts twenty-third. At +1200 on a car with elite finishability and genuine short-run pace, the value is there. +1200.
DraftKings. Burton top 5. Harrison Burton is in the Sam Hunt Racing number twenty-four Toyota — and this organization has proven Martinsville results worth paying attention to.
Dean Thompson drove for Sam Hunt Racing at this track last year and finished sixth and eighth in the two Martinsville races. Harrison Burton is a more experienced and accomplished Martinsville driver than Thompson. He won here in 2020 and sat on the pole here last year.
The organization has already shown it can build a car that works at this half-mile. Burton is simply the best driver they have put in it. Ninth at fifteen laps.
Tenth at twenty-five laps. Genuine pace at the distances that matter. Starts twenty-fourth via metric — the only reason this number is not significantly shorter.
Top-ten long-run practice pace in an organization with back-to-back Martinsville top-10 finishes last year at +1400 is a price the market cannot have right. +1400. DraftKings.
Burton top 5. All lines as of race morning. Shop lines before placing.
Bet responsibly. Card built from three verified layers: three-year Martinsville car track history loop data, practice lap averages at every distance increment, and direct driver and crew chief quotes from Friday practice audio and post-session interviews. Pit By Numbers · Betting