Five bets we're playing at Rockingham Speedway for the NC Education Lottery 250 — built from practice sheets, 2025 track data, and the numbers the market hasn't priced correctly.
By PitByNumbers Staff 6 min read J esse Love has unfinished business at Rockingham Speedway. Last year he dominated this race on track — led 53 laps, drove to the lead on the final restart, and crossed the line first — only to be disqualified in post-race inspection for a rear suspension violation. He starts second on Saturday at +300 and he's absolutely a factor.
Don't be surprised if he contends all afternoon. But favorites at +300 don't move the needle. These four do.
Goodyear is running the same tire compound used at Darlington — a high-wear setup — but Rockingham's newer surface makes this less about tire falloff and more about long-run balance. Cars that stay manageable through the center of the corner all afternoon beat cars that are fast on fresh rubber and fade when it matters. Here are our four favorite bets on Saturday.
TO WIN: COREY DAY +800 Before qualifying, Corey Day already knew how this race would be won. "Passing in tomorrow's race is going to be tough. If you don't have a way better car than the guy in front of you, it will be tough.
So we got a good car. I'm hoping that pays off." Then he went out and won the pole. After the lap he said his car felt "super solid rolling the center of the corner" and that "track position is going to be pretty crucial." He identified the key to winning this race, then immediately put himself in the best position to execute it.
He was P6 in practice speed and P6 in the 5-lap average — enough short-run pace to control restarts all afternoon on a track he described as narrow and bottom-dominant. He's coming off a career-best second at Martinsville, riding six straight top-10s — the longest active streak in the series — and tested here multiple times before this weekend. On a track where he just told you the pole is worth more than almost anywhere else on the schedule, he's sitting on it at +800.
That's the play. TO WIN: BRENT CREWS +1200 Brent Crews turned 18 on Monday. By Saturday he could be winning a national NASCAR race.
He came to Rockingham with more laps here than almost anywhere else on the schedule — an ARCA win at this track last year, his first-ever truck test here before that. "My first truck test ever actually was here as well, so I have more laps here than I do most of the tracks on the schedule this year. We'll try to take advantage of it." That's not a kid guessing his way around a new track.
He was clear about the car too: "We have a super fast number 19 Toyota Supra. I love this place. We won here last year in the ARCA car and have a really fast O'Reilly car." His Joe Gibbs Racing stablemates backed that up in 2025 — Taylor Gray ran inside the top-15 for 100% of his laps and finished sixth, Brandon Jones ran to mid-race P1 and led laps.
JGR brings legitimate cars here. The honest flag is his practice long-run picture — no 15, 20, or 25-lap data completed, so full race-trim pace is unconfirmed. But an 18-year-old with an ARCA win at this track, a JGR organization behind him, and a car he called super fast twice in the same breath is worth +1200 on a race that reshuffled the field 14 times last year.
TOP-5: RYAN SIEG +400 Ryan Sieg led 77 laps at Rockingham in 2025 — more than every driver entered in Saturday's race, including Jesse Love. He was at the front for 30 percent of the race. He ran an average running position of 14.79 in a race that scattered the field across multiple incidents, which means when the cautions came and the field compressed, Sieg was exactly where he needed to be.
He finished 19th. The finish is a lie. Seventy-seven laps led is the truth.
He starts 12th on Saturday at a track where 14 cautions reshuffled positions all afternoon, where position at lap 50 meant nothing by lap 200. That's a track where Sieg's 2025 track record is the most undervalued number on the board. DraftKings is offering +400 for a top-5 because most people looked at the 19th-place finish and moved on.
You didn't. That's the edge. TOP-5: RAJAH CARUTH +500 Read Caruth's practice sheet left to right: P14 at 5 laps, P12 at 10, P6 at 15, P4 at 20.
Every interval, he's gaining on the field. After practice he explained exactly why — "I had a lot of traffic there to start practice and we really elected to work on race trim and I felt really good about how our car was." He wasn't chasing a fast lap. He was building a race car.
Then he said it plainly: "Our 88 Chevy is super, super good, especially in the long run." His practice sheet and his own words are saying the same thing. He has a Truck Series fourth-place finish at Rockingham — this track isn't new to him. He's in the JRM organization that has won five consecutive NOAPS races with three different drivers.
He starts 13th. The market offers +500 for a top-5 on a driver who deliberately skipped short-run speed to optimize for race trim and came out with the steepest long-run improvement in the field. We'll take it.
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