Six plays for the Championship Race at Homestead. The full card hits subscriber inboxes Sunday at 12 PM ET. The first play is open now: Kyle Larson to win at +450.
Cup Best Bets: Homestead. Six plays, every market named, every play with its reasoning and its honest risk, in subscriber inboxes Sunday at noon ET before it hits the site.
Play 1 of 6, open now. Kyle Larson, Win (+450): He has led 315 of the 1,068 laps run in four Next Gen races at Homestead, 91 more than anyone in the field, and won two of them, the last one from 14th on the grid after running 22nd at lap 42. The wall-riding line that won March 2025 is his: 185 fastest laps here, 80 more than anyone else, and the lead on lap 261 when Bowman hit the fence. +450 says two wins in eleven tries, and he leads the points by 67 with one race left.
Plays 2 through 6 come the same way: the play, the price, and the why. Every bet is graded in public the Monday after, wins and losses, on the Receipts page.
THE ODDS BOARD: HOMESTEAD: Every book side by side. The disagreements are the whole edge.
THE SCOUTING REPORT: HOMESTEAD: Every driver in the Homestead field, four Next Gen races on this track, the reads the card is built from.
10 HOMESTEAD RACE FACTS NOBODY ELSE HAS: The numbers under the card, checked twice.
THE AUTOPSY: LAST RACE AT HOMESTEAD: March 2025, lap by lap. Blaney led 124 of 267 laps and lost an engine. Larson came from 22nd and won by 1.205. What that means for Sunday.